The scorching heat currently baking the Philippines may only be a preview of what’s to come.
Pagasa has raised an “El Niño Alert,” warning that the already high temperatures could be an early sign of a prolonged and severe climate disruption.
There is a 79% probability that an El Niño will emerge between June and August, and is expected to persist until early 2027, the state weather bureau said.
Right now, Filipinos are already sweltering. Heat indices, which measure how hot it feels when humidity is factored in, have reached concerning levels.
On April 22, Aparri, Cagayan and Cotabato City, Maguindanao both recorded a searing 42°C heat index, while Metro Manila hit 37°C. Extreme heat of this level triggers heat cramps, exhaustion, and even heat stroke.
READ: Our world is burning up: How do we beat the heat in the long run?
But the upcoming climate shift may not be an ordinary dry spell.
During an April 23 morning public forecast, Pagasa weather specialist Leanne Loreto said that while they initially expect a weak El Niño, it is forecast to strengthen quickly into a moderate to strong event.
Pagasa has not ruled out the possibility of a “very strong” or “Super El Niño.”
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean become unusually warm. This disrupts global wind patterns, pushing moisture and rain clouds away from the Western Pacific, including the Philippines.
The result is a drastic drop in rainfall for the country, which historically leads to dry spells and massive agricultural damages, state weather specialist Benison Estareja said.
The onset of this El Niño will not bring an instant drought.
Loreto explained that an emerging El Niño during the habagat or southwest monsoon season acts as an amplifier, bringing heavier and potentially destructive rains to the western parts of the country from June to August.
Once the monsoon weakens, however, conditions are expected to shift. A prolonged dry spell and widespread drought could take hold from October 2026 until March 2027.
El Niño can also alter the behavior of tropical cyclones.
While the total number of storms entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility, those that do form are likely to be more intense. Warmer ocean waters provide more energy, raising the risk of stronger typhoons.
In its February update, the World Meteorological Organization said that the recent weak La Niña, which typically brings cooler temperatures and more rain, was fading into a neutral state.
The abrupt transition from La Niña to a potential Super El Niño underscores the growing volatility of the global climate system.
This looming Super El Niño demands more than just personal hydration and staying indoors. It also raises questions about how prepared communities and local governments are for cycle extremes like intensified monsoon rains followed by prolonged drought.
As the Pacific continues to warm, the challenge is no longer whether climate disruptions will intensify, but how quickly societies can adapt. – fyt.ph
